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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

The Fraudulent MVP


Big thanks to Mike Jette, who coined the term used in the title and who sparked literally thousands of words worth of back-and-forth conversation regarding the topic at hand. Mike was the kerosene that made this fire burn long and bright. I'd direct you to his Twitter page if he had one, but Mike won't be contained by 140 characters.

Because they are so much fun, let’s start with some statistics.

First:
27.1 ppg (points per game), 7.7 apg (assists per game)

Pretty good, right? These are Derrick Rose’s 2010-11 playoff stats. Let’s move on:

.396 FG% (field goal percentage), .248 3Pt% (3 point field goal percentage), 6.3 3PTa/g (3 point attempts per game) 3.7 tpg (turnovers per game)

These are also Rose’s 2010-11 playoff stats. Not quite so impressive anymore. Note, that despite making less than one in every four three point attempts, he fired up over six of them per game. That’s six possessions amounting to 4.5 points. Chicago averages 93.7 possessions per game, and 97.6 points per game. Rose’s three-point shooting in the playoffs, calculated at 93.7 possessions, would account for 70.3 points. So, Rose from beyond the arc is about 28% worse than an average Bulls possession, yet he still felt the need to fire up threes more often than anyone except Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant, who both shot significantly better than the MVP.

23.4 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.8 tpg, .350 FG%, .233 3PT%

These were Rose’s stats vs. the Miami Heat in the only playoff series where he faced a formidable threat.

25 points, 8 assists, 4 turnovers, .310 FG%, .250 3PT%

And these were Rose’s stats in the final game of the series, a 83-80 loss to the Heat in game 5. If you watched the game, you’re probably surprised to see only four turnovers; it seemed he hit that mark in the final 3 minutes alone. Speaking of which:

1-3 shooting, 0-1 3PT, 1-2 FT shooting, 3 points, 0 assists, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls (both on made baskets, or “and 1” situations.)

These are Rose’s stats from 3:14 left in the 4th quarter of game 5, when the deciding game went from a twelve point Bulls lead to a three point victory for the opposing Heat. What these stats don’t include are a soft foul as Dwyane Wade took an off-balance 27-foot three-pointer, a shot Wade swished (his first three pointer of the game, for the record), then knocked down the free throw to complete the four-point play, and the last Bulls possession of the game, where it seemed designed to get Kyle Korver, a dead-eye three-point shooter the final shot. As Korver cut behind Rose in an attempt to shake loose from his defender, Rose handed Korver, the ball, thirty-five feet from the basket and with a defender so blanketed on him, they nearly morphed into one person. Korver, not exactly adept at creating his own shot (in the same way Dane Cook is not adept at creating his own comedy), had no choice but to feed it back to Rose, who dribbled into a double-team and forced an off-balance prayer as the buzzer sounded, a prayer denied by LeBron James. To boot, the free throw Rose missed (which his apologists would loudly point out was his only miss of the game) came with twenty-six seconds remaining and the Bulls trailing by one. The miss led to a must-foul situation, where Bosh knocked down two freebies, which led to the Bulls needing a three to try and save their season, a three which needed to be taken by someone other than the guy shooting under 25% from behind the arc the entire series (but who ended up taking the shot anyway due to his inability to manage the clock and feel his teammates positions.) This is where I wanted to post supporting video of the final 3:14, but, no surprisingly at all, I had a hard time finding a clip that included many of Rose's follies. If you'd like to see the last possession, you can check this clip by The Worldwide Leader, ironically enough. It's the 1:34 mark.

One more stat for you before we move on:
1
D.Rose looking like he knows I'm right

Number of MVP trophies Derrick Rose won in the 2010-11 season.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

For Brady, The Answer Is In Hollywood

"Why did they cancel the season? We were gonna win the Super Bowl!"

Something disturbing happened last Sunday. I’m not sure if you heard, but the NFL cancelled the season at 4:00pm. Yup. That’s what happened. There was no game after that. Just a cancelled season. No more football this year. Yeah, that’s the ticket. But, hypothetically, if Goodell hadn’t cancelled the season as I stated above, and, hypothetically, if the Jets and Patriots played, and if such a ludicrous thing as the Jets winning happened, then I’d be writing the following column. Hypothetically speaking, that is.

This didn't happen.
The big question surrounding the New England Patriots following their upset loss to the New York Jets in the Divisional round of the 2010-11 playoffs isn’t regarding a perhaps overrated offensive line, or a defense that was unable to put any pressure on Mark Sanchez. It’s not about the game plan or the curious fake punt.  It wasn’t about Deion Branch shoving his foot in his mouth (no Rex Ryan joke intended) by running his mouth after one catch, then dropping a pivotal pass. Heck, it wasn’t even so much about the 4th quarter drive more long and deliberate than ‘Eyes Wide Shut’ (and equally unwatchable) Nope. All the talk has been about Tom Brady, superstar quarterback of the Patriots, and his sudden inability to win playoff games.

For the Olivia Dunhams out there who have been living in an alternate universe (or those who just don’t pay that close attention to the NFL), Brady and the Patriots have lost their last three playoff games, two of which they were heavy favorites, and are 5-5 in the playoffs since winning their last Super Bowl in 2005. During this stretch, Brady has underperformed as compared to his regular season totals, more specifically and more memorably the past three playoff runs, in 2007-08, 2009-10, and 2010-11.

How could a quarterback who was once revered for being bigger than the moment and unfazed by the spotlight, suddenly and drastically begin to underachieve in the same situations? Maybe by looking at the career arc of another superstar in their chosen profession, we can find answers. Or at least get an entertaining read.

Are You Ready For A Letdown?



The title to this column is not a reference directly to the New York Jets and their inevitable letdown after all the talk and hype, and their “how you like me now!” performance against the Patriots in the Divisional round. Even as Gang Green manufactures some trash talk, as if it were a plastic cog desperately needed to make sure their machine runs correctly. However, I do see a massive letdown in their immediate future. But, to the disdain of Rex Ryan and his team, this is about much more than just the Jets.

Nope. The title is in reference to the Conference Championship week as a whole.

The hype machine, better known as ESPN (along with the other NFL backers, Showtime, CBS and Fox), will tell you that this coming weekend is going to be ripe with nail-biting games and exhilarating playoff action. They are telling you that this is must-watch television; that if you step out for a beer, you’ll probably miss something legendary, something your friends will be talking about for years to come. You’ll be an outcast in the circles of NFL fandom. So, don’t you dare miss a moment of the action. And, that’s not even taking into consideration the NFL Network, which has been selling the excitement twenty-four hours a day, literally.

Keep in mind, this is their job. They have to sell you on these games. They’ve got Zuckerberg money riding on it. Between the coverage on the networks, their pre-game shows, ESPN’s pre-game show, their post-game show, hundreds of hours of Sports Center, NFL Live, and Showtime’s Inside the NFL, the networks covering these games and asking for millions from their advertisers to do so, and they need you to watch these games.

I’ll be the first to tell you; you’re in for another Capone’s vault opening.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Thank You, Antonio Cromartie


(and thank you to my cousin, Brendon Willis, for inspiring this idea, even if I took your idea and mutated it into a monster)

I’ve always felt the football fan in me was missing something. I could never figure it out. I tried gambling. It was fun and lucrative until the salary cap era brought along parity and the ability for crap-hounds to cover spreads on any given week. I also have two fantasy football teams that allow for my inner-stat-geek to rise to the surface and not be mocked by other men. My favorite team appeared in their first Super Bowl before I was a teenager and has won three since. I got to watch my favorite player evolve from a cog in a championship winning locomotive to the conductor of the same train. I should have it all. Yet something was missing. I just didn’t know what it was.

But like Neo when he took the red pill, the answer I had been seeking came rushing to me faster than the ground rushed toward Johnny Utah after he jumped out of the plane without a parachute. (Yep. Two Keanu Reeves references in one sentence.)

It's hard to hate a guy who makes
good television, which explains Charlie
Sheen being the highest paid actor on TV
I was missing a team to hate. With the Red Sox, I have the Yankees, with the Celtics, the Lakers, and with UConn basketball, there's Duke. A nemesis is the wasabi to a favorite team's sushi. I tried to hate the Colts, but can anyone really hate Peyton Manning? He’s just so damned dopey looking, and he makes good commercials. Tony Dungy? Too much of a good guy. I also tried the Steelers, but I have too many friends that are Steeler fans and they build their program the right way, with smart drafting and player development. Besides they had Cowher and his mighty chin at the sidelines for so long (before replacing him with Omar Epps. That guy is talented. I loved him in 'Juice'.) I kind of hate the Giants, but that’s only because they like to point out how they ended the Patriots perfect season without admitting that they won it on the flukiest play in the history of the Super Bowl. But, the Pats only play the Giants every four years, so it’s hard to build a good, solid, lasting hatred for them.