Big thanks to Mike Jette, who coined the term used in the title and who sparked literally thousands of words worth of back-and-forth conversation regarding the topic at hand. Mike was the kerosene that made this fire burn long and bright. I'd direct you to his Twitter page if he had one, but Mike won't be contained by 140 characters.
Because they are so much fun, let’s start with some statistics.
First:
27.1 ppg (points per game), 7.7 apg (assists per game)
Pretty good, right? These are Derrick Rose’s 2010-11 playoff stats. Let’s move on:
.396 FG% (field goal percentage), .248 3Pt% (3 point field goal percentage), 6.3 3PTa/g (3 point attempts per game) 3.7 tpg (turnovers per game)
These are also Rose’s 2010-11 playoff stats. Not quite so impressive anymore. Note, that despite making less than one in every four three point attempts, he fired up over six of them per game. That’s six possessions amounting to 4.5 points. Chicago averages 93.7 possessions per game, and 97.6 points per game. Rose’s three-point shooting in the playoffs, calculated at 93.7 possessions, would account for 70.3 points. So, Rose from beyond the arc is about 28% worse than an average Bulls possession, yet he still felt the need to fire up threes more often than anyone except Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant, who both shot significantly better than the MVP.
23.4 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.8 tpg, .350 FG%, .233 3PT%
These were Rose’s stats vs. the Miami Heat in the only playoff series where he faced a formidable threat.
25 points, 8 assists, 4 turnovers, .310 FG%, .250 3PT%
And these were Rose’s stats in the final game of the series, a 83-80 loss to the Heat in game 5. If you watched the game, you’re probably surprised to see only four turnovers; it seemed he hit that mark in the final 3 minutes alone. Speaking of which:
1-3 shooting, 0-1 3PT, 1-2 FT shooting, 3 points, 0 assists, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls (both on made baskets, or “and 1” situations.)
These are Rose’s stats from 3:14 left in the 4th quarter of game 5, when the deciding game went from a twelve point Bulls lead to a three point victory for the opposing Heat. What these stats don’t include are a soft foul as Dwyane Wade took an off-balance 27-foot three-pointer, a shot Wade swished (his first three pointer of the game, for the record), then knocked down the free throw to complete the four-point play, and the last Bulls possession of the game, where it seemed designed to get Kyle Korver, a dead-eye three-point shooter the final shot. As Korver cut behind Rose in an attempt to shake loose from his defender, Rose handed Korver, the ball, thirty-five feet from the basket and with a defender so blanketed on him, they nearly morphed into one person. Korver, not exactly adept at creating his own shot (in the same way Dane Cook is not adept at creating his own comedy), had no choice but to feed it back to Rose, who dribbled into a double-team and forced an off-balance prayer as the buzzer sounded, a prayer denied by LeBron James. To boot, the free throw Rose missed (which his apologists would loudly point out was his only miss of the game) came with twenty-six seconds remaining and the Bulls trailing by one. The miss led to a must-foul situation, where Bosh knocked down two freebies, which led to the Bulls needing a three to try and save their season, a three which needed to be taken by someone other than the guy shooting under 25% from behind the arc the entire series (but who ended up taking the shot anyway due to his inability to manage the clock and feel his teammates positions.) This is where I wanted to post supporting video of the final 3:14, but, no surprisingly at all, I had a hard time finding a clip that included many of Rose's follies. If you'd like to see the last possession, you can check this clip by The Worldwide Leader, ironically enough. It's the 1:34 mark.
One more stat for you before we move on:
1
 |
| D.Rose looking like he knows I'm right |
Number of MVP trophies Derrick Rose won in the 2010-11 season.
Those supporters of the Fraudulent MVP will counter that one can’t argue against an MVP’s merits based on a postseason game, or series. (or an entire post-season, after this year) After all, Dirk Nowitzki won the award in 06-07, the year his Dallas Mavericks became the first #1 seed to get bounced by a #8 seed in the first round of the playoffs, a series where Dirk shot 38% (he’s a career 47% shooter), shot 21% on 3-pointers (career 38%), and averaged 19.7 ppg (career 22.7). Those supporters of Rose aren’t necessarily wrong. The award is a regular season award, and, thusly, can’t be rescinded based on post-season play.
The re-counter-argument is that Derrick Rose wasn’t even all that valuable during the regular season, either, and the playoffs simply amplified the qualities that support this statement.
Let’s look at what qualities an MVP should embody. In my opinion, there are three measures; statistics, team value, and, what I like to call “takeoverability”, or, in layman’s terms, the ability to take one’s team on their shoulders and carry them to victory.
 |
| "these are seriously the guys I gotta play with?" |
There were seven MVP candidates this season. (I wish I could include Kevin Love in this conversation as he had a quietly fantastic year, completely pumping life into the power forward position, but his team, the Timberwolves, managed only 17 wins because he played with a group of AAU dropouts, so, alas, the nephew to Beach Boys lead singer, Mike Love, remains on the sidelines for now.)
The seven candidates considered are (in alphabetical order): Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade. These were also the top seven vote-getters in the actual MVP race.
STATISTICS
Here are the pertinent statistics for our seven MVP candidates:
Bryant: 25.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.7 apg, 3.0 tpg, .451 FG%, .323 3PT%, 4.3 3PTa/g, 23.94 PER
Durant: 27.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.8 tpg, .462 FG%, .350 3PT%, 5.3 3PTa/g, 23.70 PER
Howard: 22.9 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 2.4 bpg, .593 FG%, 26.13 PER
James: 26.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 7.0 apg, 3.6 tpg, .510 FG%, .330 3PT%, 3.5 3Pta/g, 1.6 spg, 27.34 PER
Nowitzki: 23.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.9 tpg, .517 FG%, .393 3PT%, .892 FT%, 2.3 3PTa/g, 23.52 PER
Rose: 25.0 ppg, 7.7 apg, 3.4 tpg, .445 FG%, .332 3PT%, 4.8 3PTa/g, 23.62 PER
Wade: 25.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.6 apg, 3.1 tpg, .500 FG%, 25.65 PER
(RPG = rebounds per game, BPG = blocks per game)
For those not into super-geek NBA statistics, PER is a rating designed by ESPN Insider, John Hollinger to boil down all of a player’s contributions to his team into one number. It incorporates a highly detailed formula that can be found here. While imperfect, the rating is widely used to measure a player’s value. As you can see, of the above seven players, Rose ranks sixth in PER, leading Nowitzki by only 0.10 points. Overall in the NBA, Rose ranked 9th, also trailing Kevin Love, Chris Paul, and Russell Westbrook.
PER also is imperfect in determining defensive value of a player. In terms of defense, one can ably argue that Rose falls short of everyone, save Durant and Nowitzki, in this category as well.
Below, is a scale created by Hollinger to be used as a reference guide. Note where Rose’s 2010-11 PER rates him. I’ll give you a hint, it’s not as an MVP. (To simplify, I highlighted for you)
A Year For the Ages: 35.0
Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
Borderline All-Star: 20.0
Solid 2nd option: 18.0
3rd Banana: 16.5
Pretty good player: 15.0
In the rotation: 13.0
Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
Definitely renting: 9.0
The Next Stop: DLeague 5.0
Derrick Rose lies almost directly between a “Bona fide All-Star” and a “Weak MVP Candidate”. LeBron, who led the league in PER, is a hair shy of a “Strong MVP Candidate”. Howard is between “Weak Candidate” and “Strong Candidate”, and Wade is just above “Weak MVP Candidate”.
If you look only at statistics, there is no way you can argue that Derrick Rose should have won the MVP. He shouldn’t have even finished in the top 3. Basing on stats alone, the results should have been:
1. LeBron James
2. Dwight Howard
3. Dwyane Wade
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Kevin Durant
6. Dirk Nowitzki
7. Derrick Rose
 |
| Hey Bron, what do you think of D.Rose as MVP? |
Statistics don’t lie, but they tell only a portion of the whole truth. There isn’t an expansive gap between any of these player’s statistics. They are relatively interchangeable, with some excelling where others lack, and vice versa. While a player’s value can begin to be calculated by looking at statistics, it cannot be summed up completely without looking at other, non-statistical factors.
TAKEOVERABILITY
The second measure, takeoverability, is vital to an MVP. It’s not only about putting up statistics, lots of guys do that, but getting those stats when you’re team needs them most. An MVP needs to put his team onto his shoulders like Forrest Gump did to Bubba, and carry them to safety….or in this case, victory.
All seven of the MVP candidates have the ability to do this. That’s why they’re MVP candidates. If MVP was based on stats alone, guys like Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Martin, Russell Westbrook, and Andrea Bargnani would be included on this list. And, it’s not only about the guy who, with their team trailing by 7 in the fourth quarter, decides to heave up every shot possible. Guys with takeoverability not only get their shot, but know when, finding themselves double and triple teamed, to dish it to the open garbageman in the paint for a rim-rattling dunk.
That is where Rose, LeBron, Howard, Durant and to a certain extent, Kobe, fall short of the rest.
 |
| "Hey you, in section 114, you come out here and take the last shot, will ya?" |
Howard almost refuses this role, as if he were being asked to wear a pink tutu and stilettos on the court. He shies away from the big moment for the most part. (He nearly proved this wrong in the opening playoff series with a Herculean performance, but, alas, the Magic lost the series. More on that later.) Most games, though, Howard plays meek, fading into near transparency during big moments.
Durant tends to rely on his jump shot in these situations, forgetting that he’s seven-foot tall, with a good post-up game. He has a literal arsenal of options; the post moves, the dribble penetration when guarded by the bigger guys, and backing down and shooting over the smaller defenders. But, when crunch time hits, he tends to set camp up beyond the three-point arc. While he’s a decent shooter and bound to get better, he’d be much more of an assassin if he utilized all his weapons, not just his sniper rifle. Chalk this up to immaturity. Durant is still growing into his MVP shoes. With his work ethic and drive to improve, I expect Durant to learn this trade and eventually be unstoppable in these situations.
LeBron and Kobe, on the other hand, tend to go the opposite direction of Howard, absolutely refusing to allow other teammates the opportunity to take a shot when it counts, open for a rim-rattler or not. Kobe has long believed himself the best in the NBA (which isn’t incorrect), and that, despite having excellent teammates capable of taking the big shot, feels it his duty to fire it up from anywhere with any number of defenders in his face. While at times, these moments become SportsCenter leads, many others are never mentioned as they fall flat. LeBron seems to, at times, believe he is still in Cleveland, surrounded by glorified D-Leaguers, instead of South Beach, surrounded by a consistent MVP candidate and another all-star. Although, he began to relent a bit toward the end of the season, he still would fall into the “off-balance-three-pointer” and “put-his-head-down-and-bull-rush-the-rim” mentality, ignoring Bosh or Wade or…well, everyone else deserved to be ignored.
Rose, takes this to another level. While Kobe and LeBron will stay within a certain limitation, taking shots that have a reasonable chance of finding the net, Rose will fire up off-balance threes despite not being a very good three-point shooter, and will drive the lane, head down in a LeBron bull rush, only to find himself surrounded by seven-footers and forcing up an off-hand rainbow or throwing a desperate pass into a defenders hands. Rose has obviously mimicked his game after Kobe and LeBron, with one small difference. And, by “small”, I literally mean just that. Kobe stands 6’6” and LeBron is just a freak of nature, going 6’8” and 275 pounds. Rose is a generous 6’3” and weighs 190 pounds. He just can’t get over the trees in the paint.
DeWayne Wade is perhaps the best in this field. He mostly stays within his comfort zone, is a master of getting (and finishing) at the free throw stripe, knows when to shoot and when to pass, and rarely finds himself in situations he cannot get out of. Dirk does much the same. Master of the fall-away fifteen footer, he’ll back his defender down to this spot and either take this shot, pump fake and draw the foul, or when the defender backs off a bit, fire from beyond the arc, where his ice cold, German blood means he is almost better at this down the stretch.
Looking at takeoverability, there is, again, no way you can say that Rose deserves the MVP:
1. DeWayne Wade
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Kobe Bryant
4. LeBron James
5. Kevin Durant
6. Derrick Rose
7. Dwight Howard
 |
| Yup, when the game's on the line, gimmie #3 in the Heat jersey |
Perhaps the most important factor is team value, or rather, what the team would do without said player. Sometimes it is an easy factor to see, as with LeBron James in 2009-10. The Cavaliers came within two games of the NBA Finals, but take LeBron away, and it was obvious they wouldn’t make the playoffs. Of course this was proven during the 2010-11 season, when the Bron-less Cavs finished with the second worst record in the NBA. Other seasons, like this one, it can be more difficult.
This is where the Fraudulent MVP makes his most compelling case, if you listen to ESPN, that is. In a season where the talk was about Boston, LA, and Miami, the Chicago Bulls put together the best record in the NBA at 62-20, twenty-one more wins then they managed in 2009-10. This dramatic rise coincides with Rose’s improved statistics. (if you ignore FG% which dipped from .489 to .445 and turnovers, which rose from 2.8 to 3.4, but who’s counting stats that indicate poor decision making) Rose gets better as the Bulls get better. That’s all many needed to know to put that MVP trophy in the hands of #1. (that’s Rose’s uniform number)
 |
| "I'm coach of the year! Don't I deserve a little credit too?" |
But, wait. Didn’t the Bulls also add Carlos Boozer? While the Rose apologists would have you believe that Boozer’s impact was minimal, he did manage to average 17.5 ppg and 9.6 rpg, shot 51% from the field and had a PER of 18.90. If you reference the nifty chart above, that places Boozer just above “Solid 2nd Option” and just below “Bonafide All-Star”. The Bulls also added the most sought after assistant coach in the NBA, Tom Thibodeau, the defensive mastermind that guided the Celtics to the title in 07-08 and one Kendrick-Perkins-less game away from another in 09-10. Here is a guy who has helmed FIFTEEN top 10 defenses in the past 18 seasons. That is not a typo. Fifteen. The Bulls, who already were a team of talented defenders, brought in a coach who is a defensive mastermind. (I would use genius, but I truly despise the overuse of the word.) Oh, and he won the NBA Coach of the Year in 2010-11.
So, the Bulls had the best coach, a very good 2nd option, a third option that scored 17.4 ppg in Luol Deng, a player who is so valuable to the organization that many a trade has been stalled when his name is mentioned but who some would have you believe is just another squirrel trying to get a nut in Rose’s world. Oh, and they had a beast by the name of Joaquim Noah protecting the paint. This was a team that ranked 2nd in points allowed, 2nd in rebounds, and 20th in scoring offense. This was a team whose success was built on defense, and who won because of defense. Yet, somehow Derrick Rose gets all the credit because he managed 25 points per game.
Where are the Bulls if you take Rose away and replace him with an average point guard? They’re still a better team than Indiana, the Sixers and the Knicks. Their defense alone puts them into the playoffs and maybe even above Atlanta. They are hardly devastated by the loss of Rose.
Now look at Orlando, Oklahoma City, Dallas, and, to a certain extent, the Lakers. These teams went 52-30, 55-27, 57-25, and 57-25 respectively. Take Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kobe Bryant off these teams and what do you have? You have four teams whose only representation in the NBA Playoffs would be at the draft lottery show.
Durant has a very competent second fiddle in Russell Westbrook, but if you think Westbrook doesn’t get many more open looks because Durant commands so much attention, then, well, I guess you probably think Rose is MVP too. After Westbrook, there’s, uh, uh, James Harden? He does have a cool beard. Oh, and they acquired Kendrick Perkins, who kicked in 4.5 ppg.
Kobe does have one of the best big men in the NBA in Pau Gasol, and the NBA’s sixth-man of the year in Lamar Odom, which should pre-empt him from this list, right? Wrong. Gasol becomes more invisible than Howard without an alpha dog to lead him (see his performance in Memphis), and Odom is too lackadaisical, taking part, if not whole, games off when he feels like it (or when the Staples Center vending machine runs out of Sugar Daddies). Derek Fisher is a point guard only because there isn’t an official position for “keep at least one guy off Kobe”. He can’t take it to the rim and only scores when he’s fed an open jumper. You think he’s going to make Pau and Lamar any better? Then, there’s Artest, who would gladly take the scoring burden if Kobe weren’t in LA, and would lead the Lakers directly to the draft lottery. Yes, the Lakers have talent, but without Kobe, they completely lack direction. Kobe is the only leader of that team, even if he occasionally leads them in the wrong direction.
Dirk has even less to work with. He’s got Shawn Marion, who seemed like a star until he was taken out of the D’Antoni-shoot-shoot-and-shoot-more system, and Jason Terry, a three-point specialist who is getting less accurate shooting treys every year, and of course Jason Kidd, now allergic to the fast break, which was the one thing he was always very good at. Dirk missed nine games in a row (and a significant part of a tenth). The Mavs record in those ten games? 2-8. In the other 72? 55-17. Calculate the Dirk record out for a full season and their record would be 63-19, one better than the Bulls.
Then there’s big Dwight. Howard’s #2 option? Jameer Nelson, a 44% layup shooter, a 6’0 (5’10” at best) point guard who doesn’t shoot jumpers that well and who gets his 6 assists a game by throwing it to Howard in the post. And, he’s the second best player. You can only imagine how awful the rest of the team is. Howard showed how inept the remainder of the Magic were by finally becoming a stud in the one Magic postseason series this year, scoring 27 ppg and grabbing 15.5 rpg, including a game where he was in foul trouble and couldn’t get his rhythm. Take away that 8 point, 8 rebound performance, and Howard’s stats go to 30.8 ppg, 17 rpg. Orlando lost four of those five games, which could hardly be pinned on Dwight’s large chest.
The Heat were the fifth seed in the East last year without LeBron, improved ten games with him, and also added Chris Bosh. Given the success of the team last year, and in the hypothetical world where only Bosh joins the Heat, one can safely assume their regular season wouldn’t have changed all that much if LeBron had never uttered the infamous phrase, “I’m taking my talents to South Beach.” And, because LeBron became the alpha dog in Miami, one can also assume that if Wade had left Miami to LeBron and Bosh, they would be about the same regular season team they were this season. I’m not breaking any new ground here, but, though individually, they could rank first and second in team value nearly every season, when put together, they have to be considered the last two of the group.
Based on importance to team, the rankings should be:
1. Dwight Howard
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Kevin Durant
5. Derrick Rose
6. LeBron James
7. Dwyane Wade
CONCLUSION
If you take the above factors into account, it becomes obvious that Derrick Rose did not deserve the award and is truly The Fraudulent MVP. He was not statistically the best, nor did he take over better than anyone, and wasn’t the most important to his team. He didn’t even rank in the top four of any of these categories. He was an MVP built on hype by a league desperate for a superstar in Chicago, a bedrock of the NBA since Jordan brought them to the national spotlight, and built on hype by a media that loves rags-to-riches stories, likes creating a new icon. The more icons, the more highlights. The more highlights, the higher ratings. The higher ratings, the more revenue generated through advertising space. Oklahoma City and Orlando are too small of markets for the league, Kobe and Dirk have already won MVPs, and LeBron and Wade play for the same team. That leaves Derrick Rose as the MVP, an award he did not deserve.
Using the above factors, and putting more weight on takeoverability and team value, the MVP of the NBA should have been the Germinator, Dirk Nowitzki. He owns the game when it needs ownership and he is more valuable to his team than nearly anyone. He consistently ranks atop all of the measures detailed above. He means more and does more than any player in the NBA. But, where did he fall in MVP voting? Sixth. He didn’t even merit a single first-place vote. Why? Because he’s boring. All he does is win. He doesn’t score 30 a game because he makes the mediocre players on his team better, giving them makeable shots. Although Dallas is a very good market, it isn’t LA, New York, Boston, or Chicago, the foundation of the NBA. He just wasn’t sexy enough to be considered, and that’s what the league and media want for an MVP, someone who can sell sneakers and soda pop.
 |
| Hells to the Yeah! |
For the record, here is MY final MVP tally:
1. Nowitzki
2. Kobe
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. LeBron
6. Durant
7. Rose
And, the NBA voting:
1. Rose
2. Howard
3. LeBron
4. Kobe
5. Durant
6. Nowitzki
7. Wade
No comments:
Post a Comment